Down to the Wire

Well, here it is, finally - the last day before the 2012 election. And things are looking relatively good for President Obama, thanks to the October Surprise that turned out to be Hurricane Sandy.

According to Nate Silver, the President now has an 86% chance of winning reelection, thanks to leads in the battleground states and a growing lead in the polls for the popular vote (now at 50.6 vs. 48.5). Although Silver says there are plenty of other reasons that Obama has rebounded since his performance at the first debate, I have no doubt that the hurricane and its aftermath did play a part in Romney's recent slippage.

I live in New Jersey, which, along with New York City, suffered the worst damage in the storm. Thankfully for us here in Northern New Jersey, the worst we got was a lot of downed trees and power lines. Since the rain wasn't that bad, we were spared the flooding we got last year during Hurricane Irene. But as everyone knows by now, the Jersey Shore was virtually destroyed and will take a long time to rebuild.

The destruction in New York City and New Jersey brought an endorsement for President Obama from Mayor Michael Bloomberg, an Independent former Republican, who said he thought the president is best equipped to do something about climate change, which he said the storm made clear was an important issue.

And, even more importantly, Republican Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, who gave the keynote speech at Romney's convention, praised the President's response to the hurricane and accompanied him on a tour of the devastation at the Jersey Shore.

"Christie told news outlets that the president’s response had been 'outstanding,' said that coordinating with the administration had been 'wonderful,' and remarked that 'the president has been all over this and he deserves great credit.' He even told Fox News the president had done a 'great job for New Jersey' while staying above the fray about politics: 'I’ve got a job to do here in New Jersey that’s much bigger than presidential politics, and I could care less about any of that stuff.'" 

After receiving criticism from the Romney camp for his embrace of President Obama during the crisis, Christie reiterated his support for Romney but refused to back down on his praise for the President.

"'I'm a Republican, I've endorsed Mitt Romney and I support him. I intend to vote for him on Tuesday,'" Christie said. 'But the fact of the matter is that if the President of the United States comes here and he is willing to help my people, and he does it, then I'm going to say nice things about him because he's earned it.'"

In the meantime, Romney didn't do himself any favors by cynically calling an already-planned campaign rally a "storm relief rally" and actually buying some of the "donations" that supporters then picked up to "donate" to hurricane victims. It also doesn't help that he ignored the fact that the Red Cross discourages physical donations and prefers monetary aid, as sorting and shipping actual goods just takes more time, when it is usually faster to use the money to buy goods from locations closer to the center of the crisis. (You can go here to donate to the Red Cross, by the way!)

Romney's campaign also shot itself in the foot by airing deceptive commercials in Ohio during this same time period that warned Jeep and General Motors were sending jobs to China. Both Chrysler (which owns Jeep) and GM emphatically denied the accuracy of the ads.

So the general public saw President Obama acting presidential, suspending his campaign to look at storm damage, putting politics aside and joining a Republican governor in commiserating over his state's losses, while his opponent was holding a storm disaster campaign photo op and airing commercials that people knew were lies. Romney supporters shouldn't wonder why their candidate has lost his momentum and President Obama is pulling ahead.

But nothing is certain yet, as Republican governors in Florida and Ohio are doing their darnedest to suppress the vote in their states by limiting early voting, making sure there are horrendously long lines to vote in the (mostly) Democratic areas of their states, and any other strategies they can come up with.

In contrast, Christie has tried to make it easier for those displaced by the storm in New Jersey to vote, by adding early voting opportunities at county clerks' offices, extending the ability to vote by email to all citizens of the state, and allowing people to vote using provisional ballots if they are currently staying in a location outside of their usual voting area.

I am no fan of Christie, but I am very impressed with his fairness and bipartisanship during this crisis. There are certainly a lot worse Republican governors - and the ones in Ohio and Florida come to mind.

This is a very close election and every vote counts. Be sure your voice is heard and go to the polls tomorrow, if you haven't already voted early or with an absentee ballot!

The Fight for Marriage Equality Moves to New Jersey

Today is the first day of deliberations of the gay marriage bill by the Senate Judicial Committee in New Jersey. If the bill clears the committee, it goes to the State Senate for a vote. If it is approved there, it would need to be approved by the Assembly so that Governor Jon Corzine can sign it before he leaves office. His successor, Republican Chris Christie, is an opponent of gay marriage, so time is short.

Demonstrators flocked to Trenton to support or protest the bill.

In an op-ed piece last week in the New Jersey Star Ledger, Assemblyman Reed Gusciora of the 15th legislative district, spelled out in definitive terms all of the reasons it makes complete sense to legalize gay marriage. Of course, something making complete sense never appeals to the GOP, not even in "blue" New Jersey.

Assemblyman Gusciora stated:

"At its core, the ability to get married is a civil act governed by state law. Everyone must first meet the qualifications set forth by state law to receive a marriage license. Because marriage is a right conferred by the government, it should be done on an equitable basis, including the recognition of same-gender unions.

Civil marriages also have a longstanding tradition in this country. The first wedding in the Plymouth Colony was a civil marriage performed by Governor Bradford, not a religious ceremony."

He points out that legalizing gay marriage certainly does no harm to heterosexual marriages. As he put it, "I have a suggestion for those wanting to preserve their wedding vows: Stay married!"

I could quote the whole column because there are so many well-reasoned arguments in favor of same-sex marriage in it but you can go read the rest yourselves.

He concludes with the following:

"As long as we are a nation of laws dedicated to the principle of separation of church and state, the Legislature is the proper place to define our marriage laws on equitable terms. Now is the time for New Jersey to update the civil marriage laws so they are truly equal and reflect our ever changing society."

The Star Ledger editorial board supports gay marriage. In this editorial, they point out the generational divide on this issue. Two prominent politicians in New Jersey, U.S. Senator Menendez and State Senator Ronald Rice, both oppose gay marriage, while their sons support it. The editorial goes on to say:

"A national CNN poll this year showed that 58 percent of those under 30 back gay marriage, while only 24 percent of those over 65 do. This generational divide is the size of the Grand Canyon.

It means that history is on the side of marriage equality. Younger people are simply not as rattled by homosexuality, perhaps because they have lived among more openly gay people. They don’t consider it a personality defect, or a moral wrong. And they don’t want [to] treat their gay friends and relatives as something less.

So gay marriage will happen. The only question is when."

Let's hope it happens in New Jersey this month.

A Cat's Eye View - Special Election Edition

Baxter here. So, it's the Day After Election Day and already the pundits will be having a Ball claiming that the Losses in the governors' races in Virginia and New Jersey are a referendum on the human President Obama, especially since he campaigned heavily for Governor Corzine in New Jersey. GOP Chair Michael Steele says the Victories mean the GOP is a transcendent party.

Well, as a New Jersey Cat I can't speak for Virginia, but I can Certainly talk about New Jersey.

Corzine lost last night, but it wasn't because of Obama and it certainly didn't mean New Jersey is suddenly a Red State - since the Legislature remains Firmly Democratic.

Columnist Tom Moran of the New Jersey Star Ledger, says that the Governor's Loss was really a rebuke of Corzine himself.

"He scored some modest successes on education and health care. He won concessions from state workers. He signed a paid family leave bill and abolished the death penalty.

But he was never able to put together a good streak, to build a working coalition even within his own party that was equal to the gigantic challenges he faced.

He promised to ease the burden of property taxes and failed. He promised to use his Wall Street savvy to fix the state’s ever-broken finances, and he failed again.

He promised a clean and honorable government, then shoveled barrels of money to some of the shadiest characters in his party, many of whom are now in jail. A corruption sweep in July reminded voters of his dramatic failure on that front."

Paul Mulshine, a Ledger columnist who tends to be quite Conservative, pointed out that Christie has no Mandate.

"The winner last night, Republican Chris Christie, managed to get through the entire campaign without taking a single principled stand on a single issue. He was against waste, fraud and abuse. He was against corruption. He was in favor of tax cuts. And that was about it.

As a result, Christie can’t claim a mandate. That’s not just because he won by such a small margin in what should have been a runaway. It’s also because you can’t win a mandate to do nothing — which is what he promised to do."

So basically, Christie won because he's Not Jon Corzine.

Looking at exit polls, most New Jerseyans cited the Economy, Property Taxes and Other Concerns as their reasons for their Votes. Only 19% on each side said their Vote was a Vote to Support or a Vote Against President Obama. Sixty Percent said their Votes didn't have a Darn Thing to Do with Obama.

So, that's That. Here we are in New Jersey, stuck with a Republican Conservative Governor for the Next Four Years because Corzine was Too Egotistical to Drop Out of the Race when he saw he was Far Behind.

My Humans were Disgusted with Corzine, and probably had Similar Feelings to those of a Lot of New Jersey Democrats. They voted for him, but they didn't want to. So some of those Democrats stayed home and Didn't Vote at All.

My Male Human in particular still held it against Corzine that he Stopped being a U.S. Senator in 2005 in order to run for New Jersey Governor. As a result, the Dems almost lost the New Jersey Senate seat in the 2006 Senate Election; luckily Senator Menendez (appointed by Corzine in 2006 to take his Seat) squeaked by.

Then Mr. Big Ego Corzine had to stay in the race This Year despite the high Unpopularity ratings he had. He should have Stepped Aside and let Someone Else, like State Senate leader Dick Codey, run. He would have Won in a Landslide.

Oh Well. It is What It Is, as my Female Human would say.

Over Across the River in New York City, Mayor Mike Bloomberg won a Third Term, but not by as Much as he and his Supporters had expected. Turns out the Voters, although they think he's doing a Good Job, were Mad that he overturned the Term Limits and Spent a Fortune in order to get Elected to a Third Term.

One Bright Spot for the Democrats last night: The 23rd Congressional District, a Closely Watched Election in Upstate New York, went to the Democrats after the Republican dropped out at the Last Minute and Endorsed the Democrat over the remaining Conservative candidate. The really Good Thing here was that Sarah Palin and other Right Wingers had supported the Conservative guy. So this was a Blow to them and a Plus for President Obama.

So That's the Latest from Me here in New Jersey. I will Close with a quick LOL (Can't call it a LOLCat since it's not a Cat, but it is Very Appropriate) for your Amusement and Hope to be Back with some Less Serious News Items very Soon. New Jersey Cats, you'd better Stock up on Catnip; it's going to be a Long Four Years with Mr. Christie.


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