Down to the Wire

Well, here it is, finally - the last day before the 2012 election. And things are looking relatively good for President Obama, thanks to the October Surprise that turned out to be Hurricane Sandy.

According to Nate Silver, the President now has an 86% chance of winning reelection, thanks to leads in the battleground states and a growing lead in the polls for the popular vote (now at 50.6 vs. 48.5). Although Silver says there are plenty of other reasons that Obama has rebounded since his performance at the first debate, I have no doubt that the hurricane and its aftermath did play a part in Romney's recent slippage.

I live in New Jersey, which, along with New York City, suffered the worst damage in the storm. Thankfully for us here in Northern New Jersey, the worst we got was a lot of downed trees and power lines. Since the rain wasn't that bad, we were spared the flooding we got last year during Hurricane Irene. But as everyone knows by now, the Jersey Shore was virtually destroyed and will take a long time to rebuild.

The destruction in New York City and New Jersey brought an endorsement for President Obama from Mayor Michael Bloomberg, an Independent former Republican, who said he thought the president is best equipped to do something about climate change, which he said the storm made clear was an important issue.

And, even more importantly, Republican Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, who gave the keynote speech at Romney's convention, praised the President's response to the hurricane and accompanied him on a tour of the devastation at the Jersey Shore.

"Christie told news outlets that the president’s response had been 'outstanding,' said that coordinating with the administration had been 'wonderful,' and remarked that 'the president has been all over this and he deserves great credit.' He even told Fox News the president had done a 'great job for New Jersey' while staying above the fray about politics: 'I’ve got a job to do here in New Jersey that’s much bigger than presidential politics, and I could care less about any of that stuff.'" 

After receiving criticism from the Romney camp for his embrace of President Obama during the crisis, Christie reiterated his support for Romney but refused to back down on his praise for the President.

"'I'm a Republican, I've endorsed Mitt Romney and I support him. I intend to vote for him on Tuesday,'" Christie said. 'But the fact of the matter is that if the President of the United States comes here and he is willing to help my people, and he does it, then I'm going to say nice things about him because he's earned it.'"

In the meantime, Romney didn't do himself any favors by cynically calling an already-planned campaign rally a "storm relief rally" and actually buying some of the "donations" that supporters then picked up to "donate" to hurricane victims. It also doesn't help that he ignored the fact that the Red Cross discourages physical donations and prefers monetary aid, as sorting and shipping actual goods just takes more time, when it is usually faster to use the money to buy goods from locations closer to the center of the crisis. (You can go here to donate to the Red Cross, by the way!)

Romney's campaign also shot itself in the foot by airing deceptive commercials in Ohio during this same time period that warned Jeep and General Motors were sending jobs to China. Both Chrysler (which owns Jeep) and GM emphatically denied the accuracy of the ads.

So the general public saw President Obama acting presidential, suspending his campaign to look at storm damage, putting politics aside and joining a Republican governor in commiserating over his state's losses, while his opponent was holding a storm disaster campaign photo op and airing commercials that people knew were lies. Romney supporters shouldn't wonder why their candidate has lost his momentum and President Obama is pulling ahead.

But nothing is certain yet, as Republican governors in Florida and Ohio are doing their darnedest to suppress the vote in their states by limiting early voting, making sure there are horrendously long lines to vote in the (mostly) Democratic areas of their states, and any other strategies they can come up with.

In contrast, Christie has tried to make it easier for those displaced by the storm in New Jersey to vote, by adding early voting opportunities at county clerks' offices, extending the ability to vote by email to all citizens of the state, and allowing people to vote using provisional ballots if they are currently staying in a location outside of their usual voting area.

I am no fan of Christie, but I am very impressed with his fairness and bipartisanship during this crisis. There are certainly a lot worse Republican governors - and the ones in Ohio and Florida come to mind.

This is a very close election and every vote counts. Be sure your voice is heard and go to the polls tomorrow, if you haven't already voted early or with an absentee ballot!

Waiting for the Answer

So far so good here in New Jersey. There was a good crowd at the polling place when DH and I went to vote at around 11 a.m. - and a friend of ours who is a challenger said that there were lines early this morning and there had already been more people there than usually vote all day.

I was distributing literature (a legal distance from the polls of course!) at another location, and they had had a huge turnout as well. The people we were approaching were overwhelmingly voting for the Democrats. But of course in New Jersey this isn't surprising.

I'm more concerned about the swing states - and hear there are substantial problems in some of the key locations. Strange how this always happens, isn't it? Maybe not so strange. Well we can't put up with this again! Let's hope enough people voted early and enough people are willing to stand in lines when machines break down, and that no one is denied their right to vote!

Countdown

Days are crawling by
We await November 4th
Hope fighting with fear

Polls are looking good
But anything can happen
I am still afraid.

Fear of bad weather
The dreaded Bradley effect
Even voter fraud.

Diebold malfunctions
Late "October surprises"
Something might happen.

Trolling the poll sites
Viewing electoral maps
Or Magic 8-Balls.

Not until Tuesday
Will any of it matter
Then the vote is real.

A Chilling Guarantee by McCain

On today's Meet the Press, John McCain "guaranteed" that he would win in a squeaker.

"'I guarantee you that two weeks from now, you will see this has been a very close race, and I believe that I'm going to win it,' McCain told interim "Meet" moderator Tom Brokaw. 'We're going to do well in this campaign, my friend. We're going to win it, and it's going to be tight, and we're going to be up late.'"

The article goes on to say that the most recent polls are showing a tightening race, but I am not sure about that. It could be Obama's short absence from the campaign trail to visit his grandmother might have taken him off the top of people's minds for a day or so. The polls can't change that radically in two days.

But what does it mean that McCain has so much bravado that he is willing, like Joe Namath, to guarantee a victory? Does he know something we don't? Does he know what the GOP may have planned for all those hackable Diebold voting machines out there? Does he expect a massive voter suppression effort by the underground right-wing forces to whom he's sold his soul?

This pronouncement shouldn't bother me, but it does. Sure, he might just be putting a good face on his situation. He might be trying to buck up his supporters. Or maybe he really knows he's going to win.

We must not let this happen. If there is another stolen election I think half this country will rise up in revolt. And I'll be right there with them. We must make sure that every Democratic vote is counted, and every Obama supporter gets to the polls and votes. We cannot take any chances this year. Too much is at stake.

I Am Afraid

I am afraid the country is on the verge of another Great Depression.

I am afraid of the vicious, hate-filled mobs who are cheering McCain and Palin.

I am afraid that the government may declare martial law and even postpone the election if the economic situation worsens.

I am afraid that McCain-Palin's completely heinous, false and misleading video about Obama being tied to terrorism might actually work because so much of America is full of people who are ignorant.

I am afraid of the Bradley Effect.

I am afraid of voter purges in swing states, voter suppression, and Diebold.

I am afraid of an October Surprise that would benefit McCain. I wouldn't even put it past the GOP to either engineer or allow a terrorist attack if they thought it would help him beat Obama.

I am afraid of the anger that is seething in America, which could erupt if things get worse.

One part of me is excited that Obama is in the lead but another part of me is full of fear for the future. There are still 27 days until the election. Anything could happen.

I've seen some overconfidence among Democrats - a headline today talking about a possible "Obama Landslide." This also makes me afraid. We cannot become complacent, cannot take anything for granted. This article from Alternet makes some very good points:

"Along with throwing mud and benefitting from racism, McCain stands to gain from the fact that the national Republican Party now has a lot more money in the bank than the Democratic Party does. And in many states, a wide range of anti-democratic measures -- including purges of voter rolls and very unreasonable requirements for voter ID on Election Day -- will work to the benefit of the McCain-Palin ticket.

Overall, the polls showing Obama with a sizeable lead should be taken with a box of salt. The count on election night could be close. In the meantime, McCain can only benefit when progressives assume he'll lose.

Such rosy assumptions are dangerous. They're apt to result in overconfidence, reducing volunteer energy and voter turnout for Obama.

Assume that the economic crisis has doomed the McCain campaign? He hopes you will."