Can Democrats Manage Not to Lose Again to Trump?

Photo source: AP, from
 https://whyy.org/episodes/biden-enters-massive-2020-primary-field/

Well, here we are. It's a year and a half before the 2020 elections and there is a bumper crop of Democrats running for President, and more may be coming. Those leading the pack so far are Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg (yes, no one heard of him until this year) and Kamala Harris.

Others seem to be struggling to get traction, with media focusing on each "shiny new object" (to quote a Facebook friend of mine) as they announce their candidacies. The latest rumor is that NY Mayor Bill DiBlasio may throw his hat into the ring, a bad idea in my opinion, given he isn't even popular in his own city.

Last time we didn't have enough choice. This time we may have too much. But it's a better position to be in, since we have plenty of time for the field to thin out before things get really serious, and it gives us a much more robust field of qualified candidates.

In early polling, among the top 5 Democratic candidates, all but Warren would handily beat Trump in the general election if it were held today.  But of course, we are a year and a half out, and we know how that can change.

But the bigger question is, will Democrats show up at the polls if their favored candidate does not become the eventual nominee? Early indications are this could be a problem, especially if that nominee is not Bernie Sanders.

While I know that posts on Facebook and other social media are not representative of votes, my impression from Facebook and Twitter is that so far, Sanders fans are least likely to say they'll "vote Blue no matter who" in the general election. Are we heading into yet another debacle if Bernie doesn't get the nomination? Will Democratic/Progressive voters split again and give Trump the presidency for a second term?

I'm seeing more and more posts lately with Bernie supporters claiming the early polls are "rigged" against their candidate and favoring Joe Biden. The most recent issue that came up was the CNN poll that came out after Biden announced his candidacy.

The poll, which was conducted by CNN by research firm SSRS, was a pretty ordinary poll, conducted among a little over 1000 adults (913 voters), balanced by political stance, demography and geography, and weighted to make up for any undercounted groups. Respondents with both landlines and cell phones were included. In fact, more cell phone users were included than landlines, no doubt reflecting overall trends.

Subsets of respondents were broken out in the crosstabs. But they did not break out results for any group that had less than 125 raw respondents because small sample sizes may not be projectable to the group's size in the population.

This led to a number of very misleading articles and posts about the validity of the survey.

Bernie fans posted a Youtube video of the Jimmy Dore Show on a pro-Bernie Facebook page I follow, where Dore (who admits he is no expert) misinterpreted the results of the CNN poll, saying the pollsters "left out" everyone under 50 and those making less than $50k annually. Then later in the video he casually says "or didn't poll enough of them or something." He made it sound as if they purposely didn't include enough in order to skew the results.

Others posted the actual cross-tabs showing the N/As among the younger respondents, again misinterpreting the data to say it indicated they weren't polling Bernie's base, which of course is absurd.

They also post "polls" from Progressive sites like Daily Kos or Democracy for America which are just surveys of their OWN members - not balanced or weighted or in any way statistically valid - as "proof" that the mainstream polls are biased, since Bernie blows all the others away on those sites.

It is especially irritating to see this misinformation (dare I call it "fake news"? Yes, I do) being posted as truth, especially since all major polls showed the same results that were consistent with the CNN poll, with Bernie behind Biden.

Look, I get it. You want to believe your guy is really winning. And I'm not necessarily a Biden supporter. Like Hillary, he has a whole bunch of baggage and may not inspire younger people to vote. But he would bring in some of the lost voters from the states Hillary lost, such as Pennsylvania and Michigan. I would prefer a younger candidate than either him or Bernie - it is time to "pass the torch" to a new generation. But of course I will vote for WHOEVER wins the nomination.

Once again the media is going to play a big part. We're already seeing a lot of emphasis in the media on the white male candidates (incuding Beto and Buttigieg) vs. all the very qualified women who are running. Given the importance of Democratic women voters, and particularly, women of color, in the 2018 elections, it is concerning that the women aren't getting as much airplay and press as the men.

And of course, let's not forget about Russia stirring the pot, voter suppression and gerrymandering. While a couple of states' gerrymandering issues may make it to the Supreme Court, I am not sanguine that the Court will rule that their gerrymandered maps are unconstitutional, now that Kavanaugh is on the court.

But in the meantime, I wish the Bernie supporters would be team players. Instead of trashing the other Democratic candidates, they should just push positive information about Bernie. Maybe doubting Thomases like myself would be more pro-Bernie if we didn't feel such hostility from his fans and feel as if THEY are shoving him down our throats.

They need to stop anticipating or assuming that the "mainstream media" and the "corporate Democrats" are going to push Biden and spurn Bernie. It never seems to occur to them that not everybody loves Bernie. I know I don't. I like some of his ideas and I am pretty liberal. But I'm also practical and don't see how he can get his ideas through a recalcitrant Congress (it is unlikely the Democrats will regain the Senate, absent some miracle - or a very motivated Democratic electorate).

Bernie's fans complaining about the Democratic establishment and continuing to relitigate 2016 and the DNC debacle is not going to get him nominated by the overall Democratic electorate. Not everyone is ultra-progressive and not all will support Bernie. But any Democrat would have better policies than Trump.

I think Bernie would have trouble being elected in the general election vs. Trump despite current polls. Trump will ream him out about his "socialism" if he is actually nominated. He'll be Crazy Bernie this or that. And he won't get the kid glove treatment he got in 2016 from the GOP in general. They were fine with him challenging Hillary because of how much they hated her. But if Bernie is the nominee that would change abruptly, in my opinion.

Do Bernie supporters really think that all Democrats are "just as bad" as Trump? If so they are sadly deluded. What about climate change? The environment? LGBTQ rights? Women's rights and health? There are CLEAR differences.

No candidate is going to be perfect. But we can't afford purity in 2020. Too much is at stake. Those who insist on that purity are insisting from a position of privilege; it is not their rights or lives being marginalized by Trump. It's easy to be righteous and pure if you have nothing to lose by not voting, or voting third party.

Sadly, I am seeing a lot of Bernie supporters saying yet again that if he doesn't get the nomination, they will refuse to vote for whichever Democrat gets it. (Not all, of course. I know many who voted for Bernie in the primaries in 2016 but voted for Hillary in the general election).

But there is a substantial subset that is dead set on repeating the mistakes of 2016. Here are some examples from a Progressive/pro-Bernie Facebook page I follow:

"I refused to vote last time. I just COULD NOT vote the lesser of two evils. I WILL NOT fall in line this time either. I will fucking revolt."

"f you really cared about the things you claim you wouldn’t settle for any corporate establishment hack to be President because in the long run it will lead down the same path as electing Darth Cheeto again "

"If DNC cheats again I vote Green."

"I will NOT Vote.. if Bernie is not the nominee. Period. The other oligarchs aren't going to rectify much of anything. And.. I would work to grow the MovementforPeoplesParty. End of story."

...And that scares the hell out of me. We can't afford another four years of Trump. Wake up people!

President-Elect Trump

Who would have believed two years ago that this could even happen? Well, it has. And there were a lot of reasons for it.

First of all, no one took him seriously at first. The media loved him because he got them ratings, so they kept showing all his outrageous speeches and his big rallies without criticizing their content or calling him out on his lies. Democrats didn't take him seriously. Pundits didn't take him seriously. And neither did I.

I had been aware of Trump for 25+ years, especially since I live in the Metro NY area. But I never really paid any attention to him, even when he was bloviating about Obama not being born in the U.S. I mean, who cares what a reality TV star who runs casinos and builds gaudy towers thinks about the President? I never even watched his Apprentice shows, not even once. I just ignored the guy as someone who was not worthy of attention.

Well, as it turned out, he was. And in a very bad way.

As for the Democrats, they had a three-way race in the primaries that the media narrowed immediately to Bernie Sanders vs. Hillary Clinton, totally ignoring Martin O'Malley, who, in the brief moments he had to comment during their primary debates, actually sounded like a decent candidate. I had not originally been a fan of Hillary Clinton, as I felt she had way too much baggage and the Republicans hated her. So I voted for Bernie Sanders in the primary.

Then came the nominations - and it became Trump vs. Hillary. In watching their conventions, I felt it was obvious that Hillary had the advantage. Her convention was full of hope and positivity, while Trump's was dark and foreboding. Didn't we learn that Reagan beat Carter in 1980 because Carter had spoken of the "malaise" in America, while Reagan offered that sunny vision of  "a shining city on the hill"? I assumed history would repeat itself. No one wants to think America is no longer great, and believe a dark vision of the country that only Trump could save, surely.

Sure, there were some stumbles - Hillary didn't campaign much in August, devoting a lot of her time to fundraising; and then she had that bout with pneumonia in September. But she bounced right back with three solid debate performances, where she seemed to  best Trump in each one. Her poll numbers rose again and I was feeling confident she would do well in the election.

Then came the Comey announcement about the discovery of new emails "pertinent to" the FBI investigation discovered on Anthony Weiner's laptop, putting her on the defensive again and giving red meat to the Right. Nine days later Comey said "nothing to see here after all," and moved on. But probably by then the damage was done.

On election night, Trump won the electoral college and thereby the Presidency.

Then came all the recriminations and the blame. The polls were wrong. Comey did it. Wikileaks did it. The Russians hacked it. It was the DNC's fault for cheating Bernie out of the nomination.The media was complicit by giving Trump too much air time and touting false equivalencies between his flaws and Hillary's. The Democrats didn't turn out in sufficient numbers. There was an underground white working-class rebellion everyone had missed. Clinton's campaign hadn't focused enough on states like Wisconsin or Michigan. They took African Americans and Hispanics for granted. Trump supporters were voting against their own self-interests. Bernie supporters refused to support Hillary. And so it goes.

All of these factors came into play and led to the result that most thinking people hadn't believed could happen. America voted in a president who has no knowledge of how government works, knows nothing about policies - neither foreign nor domestic - has spouted various stances on every issue imaginable and has no actual moral core. However, his campaign was run by Steve Bannon, who headed up Breitbart news as it became a vehicle for the "alt-right" movement, and who has now been chosen as Trump's strategist in the White House. He picked Mike Pence, a far right religious conservative whose policies as governor of Indiana show he is a formidable opponent of women's and LGBTQ rights. Other names being touted as potential cabinet members are equally concerning, especially when it comes to the EPA.

And let's not forget that Speaker of the House Paul Ryan is champing at the bit to get rid of the ACA, Medicare, Social Security, and various other programs. And of course, that Trump will be able to pick at least one, and likely more, Supreme Court Justices. It all adds up to a total disaster for the Progressive cause, and a huge setback for so much progress that has been made over the past 8 years.

So what went wrong?

I had an uneasy feeling about the election since the spring when Bernie Sanders' movement got under way, and I saw the enthusiasm for him, and not so much for Hillary Clinton. It all felt a lot like 1968. I remembered how Eugene McCarthy's followers had refused to get behind the winner of the Democratic nomination, Hubert Humphrey, and how the former candidate himself had refused to endorse Humphrey until the last moment, when the damage had already been done. And Nixon was elected President.

I was pleased that Bernie did endorse Hillary immediately after conceding the nomination to her. However, that did not please his followers. Looking back, maybe McCarthy's followers wouldn't have cared if McCarthy had endorsed Humphrey earlier either. The result might have been the same in 1968 just as it was in 2016. Some called Sanders a traitor for endorsing Clinton. Others just didn't care. There was so much bitterness left from the hard-fought primary, and also from the revelation that the Democratic National Committee had favored Hillary, revealed in the Wikileaks release of emails among DNC members. Some Bernie supporters weren't Democrats at all and maybe they would never have voted for Hillary in the first place. But others probably would have, if they hadn't seen another choice.

I was one of the people who supported Bernie, but not blindly. I knew his policies would be hard, if not impossible to implement. I just wanted to protest about having Hillary Clinton being presented as our only choice, as I felt she would be a flawed nominee..

However, once she got the nomination, I was committed to her, and the more I saw of her, and the more I learned about her, the more I actually liked her on top of supporting her politically. I could put myself in her place and remember what it was like for women of our age (I am 63) back in the day; how hard she had to work to get to where she was. Whether or not you agreed with everything she has done (or that Bill Clinton did) - which I didn't - she was strong, she was brave, and she was qualified. Trump was none of those.

Trump is a weak, insecure bully with no pertinent experience for the role he will now be playing. His thin-skinned, easily offended nature terrifies me. Will he, as someone on Facebook said today, start a war because of a tweet? One can only hope there will be cooler heads in his administration who will control him insofar as international relations - and the use of nuclear weapons - are concerned.

I must say the results of this election have gotten me angry and fired up to a degree I have not felt in many years. If any ordinary Republican - say Romney, Jeb Bush, or Rubio - had been elected, I would be unhappy, but not like this. I immediately sent a small donation to about ten different organizations that work for LGBTQ rights, racial justice, women's reproductive rights, and the environment. And I'm going to the Women's March on Washington on January 21, 2017. But I feel rather helpless as the GOP will be controlling all three branches of government; there will be no checks and balances. They will have carte blanche to do the things they've always wanted to do.

We cannot let them succeed.

One of my big concerns is that many avid Bernie supporters refuse to join with those who supported Hillary to work to defeat the Trump administration's agenda.

They cite the fact that the Democratic Party has done things they disagree with - from using drones that kill civilians, or allowing fracking, to supporting foreign governments that allow human rights violations - to say that both parties are equally evil and they say they want no part of the Democratic Party. They say those of us who are calling for them to work together against Trump are acting "privileged" or "self-satisfied" and "sanctimonious." They say we didn't try to create a force that would have destroyed the oppressors.

I have done some soul-searching as I am always open to constructive criticism. I do not see what we could have done differently under the current system to reject both parties and somehow become powerful enough to have influence over what this country does.

Whether it was the fault of the DNC, rigged voting or just plain not getting enough votes (and you can argue any one of those points all you want), Bernie did not win the nomination. I'm sorry. He just didn't. If he had, I would have supported him wholeheartedly against Trump.

As far as voting for a third party - which I know many Bernie supporters chose to do rather than vote for Hillary - that would not have worked either. First of all, our system is completely rigged against third parties winning, so that is a problem that needs to be addressed at another time. This year was not the time. I also did not even agree with Jill Stein's perspective on a lot of things (let alone Gary Johnson's!) and felt she was supremely unqualified to run a government. So please spare me the idea of "Well, if everyone had voted for her she would have won." I wouldn't have WANTED her to win.

So that leaves this question for the Bernie supporters who reject the Democratic Party: What is your solution to the mess we are in? I am open to all suggestions. To me there are two things at stake:
(1) How to prevent the GOP from reversing all of the progress that has been made in terms of civil rights and a cleaner environment; and (2) Longer-term, how do we ensure that true Progressives gain power in Washington?

For (2), there are also two things that can be done. One is to work from within the Democratic Party to reform it and bring it back to its original Progressive values, by working at local and state levels to get Progressives in office in state legislatures, governorships, and Congress. The second way, if you think the Democratic Party is a lost cause, is to champion a Progressive third party that can develop real power - not the Greens who barely run any candidates on local levels and then trot out an unqualified candidate for President every four years, if that. (And yes, I am aware there are SOME Greens in office in some parts of the country but not nearly enough). Those third-party candidates have to start at the grass roots level. Run them for town council, for freeholder, for assembly representative, for state senator. Then run them for governor and Congress, and finally for President. Only then will it be possible for a third party to have power, and not before.

If anyone has other solutions to the mess we are now in, please, let me know. Because we have no time to waste.

A Cat's Eye View: In it for the Long Haul

Baxter here. I am Complaining because there are Too Many Republicans. Here at My House, we were Thinking of Maybe watching the Republican "Debate" but in the End could not Bear to do it. How can there be any Sense made out of ten people answering Stupid Questions for Two Hours. What kind of Substantive Conversation can be had?

The Worst Thing is, there isn't even One Candidate that would make a Good President out of the Bunch of them. I don't know What this Country is coming to. And I think those with No Support Whatsoever (I'm looking at YOU, Chris Christie!) should Drop Out and let the other Bozos get more Air Time so Everyone can see what Idiots they all are.

Then on the Democratic side, there is the whole Hillary vs. Bernie Problem. Hillary supporters say Bernie can't Win so people should be Rooting for Hillary. They say don't Waste Your Vote on Bernie because he Can't Win. Bernie supporters, on the Other Hand, say Hillary is as Bad as the Republicans and if you Vote for Her you are as Bad as a Republican too.

Neither of these Opinions are True, in My Own Not-so-Humble Opinion. Why not Wait and See who Wins the Primaries? If you really Agree with Bernie, vote for him in the Primary. If he doesn't Win and Hillary is the Nominee, then vote for her in the General Election. Isn't that Simple? Oh, you are one of Those who say Hillary is no Better than a Republican? Have you SEEN who the Republicans are? Do you KNOW what they Believe? Check out this link.

You will see their Views on Many Subjects are direct Opposites of Hillary's OR Bernie's, especially when it comes to Family Planning and a Woman's Right to Choose. Check out their Views on Energy and Oil and Alternative Energy Sources. Compare their Civil Rights records and their Views on Global Warming. If you are a Democrat, you will realize there IS a difference between the Parties and that Hillary's views are a Lot Closer to Bernie's than You May Realize.

Then Keep in Mind that there will No Doubt be Supreme Court Appointments to be made in the coming Presidential Term. If Hillary is the Democratic Nominee and you Stay Home or Write in a Candidate You Prefer, then if one of these Republican Candidates wins the Election, you will have Only Yourself to Blame if we get a Completely Right Wing Supreme Court as a result.

Me, I am in it for the Long Haul. First, let's see who Emerges among the Republican Crew as the Actual Nominee. Then let's see who the Democratic Nominee is. And then things will Get Interesting. Right now it's all a Big Show.

So... Carry On with the Debates. Maybe by Next Spring they might Mean Something. In the Meantime, I think I will enjoy some Catnip and Relax.