Showing posts with label global warming. Show all posts
Showing posts with label global warming. Show all posts

Friday, March 14, 2014

Science is Not an Opinion

Source of cartoon

One of the things that really worries me about the "modern" (and I use that word loosely) Republican Party is the insistence by many of the party's members that scientific facts that others take for granted are merely matters of opinion - and not facts at all.

For instance, I really thought the question of evolution versus creationism had been settled back in 1925 with the Scopes Trial, which was widely seen as a setback for anti-evolution forces at the time, although the Supreme Court didn't rule on the issue until 1968, in the case of Epperson vs. Arkansas.

At that time, two states, Arkansas and Mississippi, banned the teaching of evolution in schools. The Court ruled that the Arkansas law
"...must be stricken because of its conflict with the constitutional prohibition of state laws respecting an establishment of religion or prohibiting the free exercise thereof. The overriding fact is that Arkansas' law selects from the body of knowledge a particular segment which it proscribes for the sole reason that it is deemed to conflict with a particular religious doctrine; that is, with a particular interpretation of the Book of Genesis by a particular religious group."
A 1987 Supreme Court decision also ruled a Louisiana law requiring teachers to teach creationist theory if they were teaching evolution was also unconstitutional, again based on the establishment clause of the First Amendment.

With the rise in importance of the Religious Right in the U.S. over the past few decades, teaching evolution as the accepted theory of how different species, including mankind, came into existence, has become a source of contention in many states. Some states, like Kentucky, have laws that allow teachers to teach creationism along with evolution at their discretion. Curricula in other states downplay evolution by emphasizing that it is only a "theory," or authorizing the teaching of alternative explanations.

One of the exasperating things about those who claim evolution is "only a theory" is their lack of understanding of the scientific method. The use of "theory" as it pertains to evolution is as a part of that method:
"A scientific theory summarizes a hypothesis or group of hypotheses that have been supported with repeated testing. If enough evidence accumulates to support a hypothesis, it moves to the next step—known as a theory—in the scientific method and becomes accepted as a valid explanation of a phenomenon."
It is all the more concerning that in a recent Gallup poll, 46% of Americans believe God created people and animals just as they are, less than 10,000 years ago, despite tons of scientific evidence to the contrary. People who believe this stuff come up with excuses to explain away the evidence, or to say the evidence is fake, or even say Satan is the one who came up with the idea that dinosaurs are millions of years old.

The even scarier thing is that the same percentage of college graduates believe this. And of course, 58% of Republicans.

Then there is the issue of climate change. It appears pretty low on the list of things that people worry "a great deal about," at 24%. But when it comes to Republicans vs. Democrats, there is a clear difference. When you look at the Democrats, 36% of them are concerned "a great deal" about climate change, while among Republicans, just 10% have that level of concern.

And although, overall, 67% of Americans believe the earth is heating up, 85% of Democrats believe it, but only 48% of Republicans do. When you look at conservative Republicans, it's only 43% - and among those only 16% think it is happening due to human activity.


97% of scientists who have studied the issue agree that global warming is taking place as a result of human activity, and will cause catastrophic results during the next 100 years.

But the deniers either deny the existence of climate change, or else agree it's happening but is part of a natural cycle - despite the steep trend line of the warming. And many conservatives refuse to admit that the scientists agree, saying the 97% number isn't right or even saying that the earth is actually cooling.

But despite this winter's Polar Vortex that caused unusually cold weather across the northern hemisphere, climate researchers on Hudson Bay are reporting a continued reduction in Arctic sea ice, with open water periods lengthening by about 3 weeks just since the 1990s. And despite the chilly temperatures in the U.S. over the winter, global average temperatures in 2013 are nevertheless expected to be among the 10 highest on record since 1850.

And if you look at the trend by decade back to 1881, you can see the relentless climb in average global temperatures. The last three decades have been the worst, as developing countries, particularly China, have vastly increased their carbon emissions as they become more industrialized.


Source: Washington Post

But you can't tell any of this to a climate change denier. They will just have more excuses why it's a hoax perpetrated by liberals.

And then there's another big group of people who are anti-science. These people are fervently against vaccinating their kids. This group comprises an unlikely alliance of lefties who feel vaccines are unnatural and dangerous, conspiracy theorists who believe the government is trying to poison them for some unknown and nefarious reason, and some right-wingers who think vaccinations are an example of government overreach.

As a result, diseases such as measles that were close to being eradicated in the United States are making a comeback. Most of those who are against vaccination don't even realize that diseases such as measles can kill people. They think the cure is worse than the disease, when that is emphatically not the case. If something isn't done, at this rate, polio could even come back. The problem is most people today weren't even around when these diseases ran rampant in our population, so they don't know what it was like.

The other problem with not vaccinating kids is the loss of "herd immunity," wherein the few people who aren't able to be vaccinated for one reason or another - or for whom the vaccine just didn't work - are protected due to the fact that the rest of the people they interact with have been vaccinated. Unfortunately, as the number of unvaccinated children rises, that herd immunity is no longer effective and the risk of contagion becomes higher for everyone. When a family refuses to have their child vaccinated, they are not only putting their child at risk, but they are putting others at risk as well.

Thankfully, there are some people who do see the light in regard to vaccines - see this blog post written by a young mother who had jumped on the anti-vaccination bandwagon, only to have the good sense to reconsider her views.

But many others will refuse to listen to reason. In fact, a scientific study showed that exposing anti-vaccine believers to evidence and factual information often backfired and actually decreased their intention to vaccinate.

In fact, for all of these issues, no matter how much you tell actual facts to people who have a strong belief about something, the less they listen. They claim you have been brainwashed, you have drunk the Kool-Aid, or are part of the Conspiracy.

Other studies bear this out:
"In a series of studies in 2005 and 2006, researchers at the University of Michigan found that when misinformed people, particularly political partisans, were exposed to corrected facts in news stories, they rarely changed their minds. In fact, they often became even more strongly set in their beliefs. Facts, they found, were not curing misinformation. Like an underpowered antibiotic, facts could actually make misinformation even stronger."
This means that there is no current solution to pull this country out of the abyss of ignorance. How do you argue with people who won't believe facts because they contradict their opinions?

Science is not an opinion. But until more people in America admit that, we will continue to fall farther and farther behind other countries that are a bit more rational in their beliefs.

I predict the era of American domination is nearing an end and we will fall into a dark age of sorts, while other countries take the lead into the next century.

Sunday, April 05, 2009

A Cat's Eye View


Baxter here, back for another Weekly Roundup of the news. As you see above, this is yet another New Picture of Me. Hope you like it.

Well, my Female Human has found yet Another Distraction: Blip. It's like Twitter but with Music. You can just upload songs All Day Long. And post them on Twitter. There is No End to this Sort of Thing.

It was finally Springlike today and That Dog spent a Lot of Time Outside, which was great for Me because I got to curl up next to the Male Human and enjoy some Companionship for a change, without being Bothered. Then for awhile all of Them were Outside and I got the House to Myself and had plenty of Time to Surf the Internet for News. So without Further Ado, here is my Weekly Roundup:

In international News, North Korea launched some kind of Rocket to show the Rest of the World how Powerful they are getting; but it kind of Fizzled. After all the Hype, the thing just went down in the Pacific. But it is still a Grave Threat since North Korea has Nukes and who knows when they may be able to reach Us? Something Must be Done.

Interestingly, President Obama got the proverbial 3 a.m. phone call about the Launch of the Missile; except it was at 4:30 a.m. Close Enough.

Those who doubt the Reality of Climate Change should be Aware that a big Chunk of Antarctica is about to Fall into the Sea. The Ice Shelf lost about 14% of its Mass last year, and has been melting since the 1990s. In a Somewhat-Related Development, the Obama Administration is working to Limit the size of Cruise Ships that tour Antarctica in order to Protect the Environment.

Global Warming is also Endangering a cute little Furry Creature called the Pika. These Pika things can't live in Hot Weather and their Habitat is getting Warmer, which is Bad News for Them. Of course, as a Cat, I look at a Pika as something Good to Eat. But being an Indoor Cat, I will never have a Chance to Eat one. They are probably going to put it on the Endangered Species List. Here is a Picture of one of the Little Fellows:

Here at Home, it has not been a Good Week in General. In Binghamton, NY, a Man gunned down 13 People in a Civic Association, while in Pittsburgh, another Man killed 3 Police Officers in a shootout. And those NRA People still think it's a Good Idea to have Guns? Please!

In More Positive News, the President and First Lady have been making a Tour of it in Europe, meeting the Royal Family, greeting Youthful Supporters, meeting other World Leaders at the G20 Meeting, and More. Michelle's Wardrobe was a Topic of Much Discussion in addition to the Political Stuff. It seems to have been a Successful Trip so far, which is a Good Thing.

And of course, the Best News of the Week was the Decision by Iowa's Supreme Court that legalized Gay Marriage. Marriages will begin as soon as April 24th. And more Good News - this Newly Won Right won't go away anytime soon:

"The county attorney who defended the law said he would not seek a rehearing. The only recourse for opponents appeared to be a constitutional amendment, which couldn't get on the ballot until 2012 at the earliest."


Now, you wouldn't think a Cat would be that Concerned about the Marriage Customs of Humans. But we Cats are very strongly Independent and believe in being Allowed to do Whatever We Want. And we feel that All Humans should have the Same Rights to do what they Want.

With that, I will Sign Off, and wish all of you Humans out there, and your Cats (and I suppose, your Dogs) a Very Good Week. I hear the Weather is going to be Cold and Rainy again on Tuesday. Have some Catnip and try to get through it. Spring will be here for Good sooner or later!

Saturday, November 03, 2007

It's Not Just My Imagination















This fall's weather has been unusually, unseasonably, warm. As this map shows, during the third week of October when we were in the Adirondacks, temperatures were nearly 10 degrees over average. While I was pleased and surprised to be enjoying beautiful fall foliage and 75 degree temperatures on our long weekend, I knew there was something just not quite right about the whole thing.

I look out the window into my back yard and see all the trees here in my neighborhood not only still have leaves, but those leaves are green. The maple tree overhanging our deck looks the same as it did in mid-summer.

When DH and I were married 22 years ago on October 5, 1985, the leaves had turned and were already falling off the trees. One of our wedding pictures shows us in our wedding finery standing next to a maple tree. The tree's leaves were universally yellow and many of them were already on the ground beneath our feet - a full month earlier than today.

When we visited Newfoundland, Canada, two years ago, everywhere we went the people were talking about global warming. One town, Twillingate, is usually a mecca for tourists coming to see the picturesque icebergs floating down from the north; but when we were there, at the height of the iceberg season, there were none. There are many there who depend on the tourism for much of their income, and no one wants to go out on a boat to look at iceburgs when there are no icebergs to be seen, so their livelihoods are suffering. (See below for a magnificent iceberg in the Twillingate area - something we did not see when we were there).











I think nowadays there is no denying that global temperatures are getting warmer. Even the Neocons have to admit this when faced with trends such as these:













But what many of them still deny is the relationship between carbon dioxide and temperature change. But this comparison is pretty convincing to me:




















It is true that correlation does not necessarily mean causation. And it's possible this warming trend might have happened anyway and the increase in carbon dioxide in the air is a coincidence.

This site goes into a lot of detail showing that carbon dioxide may not be the sole, or main, cause of the recent warming trends. Apparently there was a similar warm trend back in the Middle Ages, followed by a Little Ice Age, from which we may just be emerging.

But science shows that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could promote warming. And we do have more of it in the atmosphere. And warming is happening. Could it do any harm to try to cut down on it and slow down this trend? Cutting back on fossil fuel consumption can have other benefits besides slowing global warming, such as making us less dependent on countries such as Saudi Arabia, and postponing the inevitable date when we run out of these fuels altogether.

The problem is, businesses don't want to make the investments needed to cut back on carbon dioxide emissions. Those whose political careers are supported by Big Business don't want to offend their supporters.

So unless that changes, prepare for more warm autumns, hotter summers, less snow, fewer polar bears, more floods and dangerous storms, and beachfront property several miles inland.

Hmmm, perhaps our house will become more valuable with a beach in front of it? It might not be all bad.

Today's Haiku:

Maple trees are green
Canada Geese don't migrate
Climate change is real.